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Monday, October 20, 2008

Panic mode in Redsox nation?

By Tangotiger, 10:17 AM

Are Redsox fans in danger of becoming as hard to please as Yankees fans?  If you have a team that was expected to be one of the best teams in the league, played like one of the best teams in the league, and was a hair of playing in the World Series, then panic and wholesale changes and spending hundreds of millions of dollars at the “problem” is not the answer.  (A problem that would not even exist if they won one more game.) This is the same kind of story I use to hear every day for a few years, how the Yankees needed to shore up their bullpen because they were weak in the 7th innings.  Imagine that.  Some teams don’t even have a quality ace, or have more than five quality position players, and the Yankee fans used to think their problem is that the 23rd best player on the team isn’t good enough!  Talk about a jaded perspective.  All this means is that we will always have fans of 29 teams complaining about something, and all say they need big changes, not realizing that all 30 teams are in a similar position.

Ideally, you would like for your team to have a true talent level of around 86 wins.  That should be the goal for any team.  If you have a team that is good enough to win, on average, 86 wins, then you need to be in an extremely good mood.  If you have a team that has a true talent level of 76 wins, then you can beg the team to spend big bucks for at least one huge player, if not two.  Otherwise, be prepared to be miserable, and plan for hope.  Teams that are average should go out and spend the big bucks for one huge player.

So, Redsox fans: list the teams from 1 to 30 in terms of talent level, and figure out where your team ranks.  Then be glad that you are not in the position of the at least 25 teams below you.

(19) Comments • 2008/10/22 • SabermetricsTalent_Distribution
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October 20, 2008
Panic mode in Redsox nation?