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THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

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Wednesday, January 20, 2010

Padress off-season signings

By Tangotiger, 05:54 PM

Friar Forecast gives it to us, looking at Kouz, Hairston (the younger one), Adams.

What the forecasted-WAR and the WAR-to-dollar times service-time-discount does is simply give a basic framework to understanding all these days.  In reality, the arbitration-eligible salaries are based on comparables, so you get someone like Gutierrez who’s hard to get a good comparable out of because of his tremendous fielding, so the system pretty much misses.  And the same applies with Morneau, who is an RBI machine and we don’t care about ribbies (and so the system misses the other way).

Overall, it gives you the initial basis. 

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January 20, 2010
Padress off-season signings