THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

Wednesday, November 17, 2010

Open Letter to Murray Chass

Dear Mr. Chass,

You have been doing fantastic work as an internet columnist.  Great stuff, really setting the standard.  The way you can just talk to a bunch of GMs and write an excellent piece was an example, not an exception.  If just 10% of the bloggers did what you did, I would have no need for the mainstream media. 

You correctly said this:

The Seattle right-hander had the league’s lowest earned run average, 2.27; the lowest opposing batting average, .212; the most innings pitched, 249 1/3, and missed by two of having the most strikeouts (232).

Those are statistics that have been around for a long time.  Those are very traditional statistics.  But then you said:

The development, I believe, is directly related to the growing influence of the new-fangled statistics which readers of this site know I have no use for, a fact that sends stats-freak denizens of the blogosphere into a stats-freak frenzy.

But, that’s not at all what is happening.  The only thing that is happening is that a pitcher’s W/L record is being devalued substantially.  The new-fangled stats is not what is helping Felix.  Indeed, if we did use the new-fangled stats, it would be Jered Weaver and Cliff Lee and Franciso Liriano that would see the most benefit, not Felix Hernandez.  (Did I scare you, or intrigue you?  I hope it’s the latter.)

If we focus only on the traditional stats you presented (ERA, BA, IP, K), Felix looks unbeatable.  If you focus on the new-fangled stats (FIP or Fielding Independent Pitching; WAR or Wins Above Replacement; WPA or Win Probability Added), Felix looks strong, but not unbeatable.  And a reasonable argument can be made for several pitchers by using the new-fangled stats.

It simply goes back to what exactly does the Won/Loss record that is assigned to a pitcher represent.  At least 50% of it represents the team’s offensive support.  Another portion of it represents his fielding support, and to a lesser extent his bullpen support.  In short, the won-loss record assigned to a pitcher is more about a pitcher’s environment than about the pitcher himself.

The paradox is that a pitcher’s career won-loss record is fairly representative of the pitcher, because given a long enough career, each pitcher’s environment ends up, to some extent, cancelling out.  Not entirely of course, but more often than not.  And perhaps that is really the thing that is preventing a pitcher’s seasonal won-loss record from being discarded entirely.

This issue is purely one with regards to the pitcher’s seasonal won-loss record, and it has nothing at all to do with FIP, WAR, or WPA.  Now, if Weaver and Liriano and Lee get strong support, then I’m wrong, and you are right that the dark side has won.  Felix though?  Him winning or finishing second is just a realization of the won-loss record being highly influenced by things outside the pitcher’s control.

Tom

Disclosure: I provide stats-related services to MLB teams, including the Mariners.  I have created or had a strong hand in developing the new-fangled stats mentioned (FIP, WAR, WPA).