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Friday, June 27, 2008
One of many ways that not regressing toward the mean can get you in trouble…
Here is a snippet from a BP article by Geoff Young about Adrian Gonzalez, the Padres slugging first sacker (I sound like a real baseball writer!):
So I decided to check out his age 25 stats (from 5/8/07 to 5/7/08) and see just how much he’d built on his success from the previous year. Using the same format from my earlier article, and with the help of David Pinto’s Day-by-Day Database, here’s what I found:
Adrian Gonzalez, Age 24-25 Age AB BA OBP SLG ISO XB/H AB/HR
24 598 .316 .376 .543 .227 .376 18.69
25 650 .282 .344 .498 .216 .432 22.41Uh-oh. That wasn’t supposed to happen. I had it all figured out: Gonzalez was going to exhibit a slow but steady increase in skills, and the numbers would support what my eyes had led me to believe.
Unfortunately, reality had other ideas.
So, Young thinks that Gonzalez did not progress as a 24 year old should, given that his numbers (say, OPS) went down from .919 to .842, a significant decline. But wait…
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