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Thursday, December 28, 2006
Once a Galarraga…
As an Expos fan, there was so greater bothersome sight than seeing Galarraga with an 0-2 count. Why? Because everyone knew what would happen: the pitcher would throw a low breaking ball away in the dirt, and Galarraga would swing, lunge, and miss. It may sound like I’m exaggerating when I say he has probably struck out in 75% of such occasions, but I’m probably close. I’d also be disappointed if there was anyone else who struck out more often in that situation. And, what was alarming is how good a hitter he was otherwise!
David Appelman shows us the year-to-year correlation on players swinging at pitches outside the strike zone. And the correlation is an astounding r=.87. That is HIGH. It’s like, players don’t learn. They have their approach, and they will stick to their approach, because their approach is what made them get there in the first place.
And, when you see former Expo Vladimir Guerrero as the “HR hitter who has swung the most at an outside pitch”, maybe the players are right. Who is anyone to tell such an elite hitter how to hit? And, this guy hardly ever strikes out! Perhaps if David did an additional category, which only includes balls that were swung and missed, or swings that resulted in an out, Vlad would not be in this list at all. Galarraga though definitely would.
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