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Monday, April 04, 2011
“On pace to…”
I have for the perfect solution for someone who says “He’s on pace to...”.
Say that someone hits 3 HR in his first three games. Someone will say “he’s on pace to hit 162 HR”. But his actual pace is to do whatever it is other people who started with 3 HR in 3 games actually did.
That is, his observed pace of 3 HR and 3 games will lead to an EXPECTED pace of whatever has historically happened. Who knows, maybe people will even learn about regression toward the mean.
People who do the “on pace to...” the traditional (stupid) way impugn numbers. Leave them alone.
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