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THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

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Wednesday, May 04, 2011

OF Arms

By Tangotiger, 01:23 PM

Kahrl did her darndest to highlight an easy saber-sell: OF arms.  There’s really not much disagreement among the systems.  And the systems also are loosely linked to the Fans Scouting Report

But seeing the comments in there shows how fans really want an explanation when their guy is not in the leader boards.  The Fans Scouting Report has Jay Bruce at the top, matching some of those commenters.  And had Kahrl gone back to 2009-2011 instead, Bruce would come in at #4 among RF.

So, I’m on board with the way Kahrl went about it.  But two things to make sure to present it better:
1. When you can go two years instead of 1, do it.
2. Acknowledge the “obvious” guys that should rank higher, but don’t, as at least a sample size issue that limits the usefulness of metrics to some extent.  Or maybe they are not as good.  But you have to talk about them so that they are not ignored.

A good example is Justin Verlander.  He should be awesome, he is awesome, but his ERA is not awesome.  You have to talk about why to some extent.  Same thing here with Jay Bruce.  And had she gone to two years, it would not be an issue, because he’s right there.

Anyway, good job overall, and just need to sharpen the edges.

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May 04, 2011
OF Arms