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Thursday, November 17, 2011
Odds of Cliff Lee reaching 300 wins?
At age 29-32, Cliff Lee had an ERA+ (i.e., ERA adjusted relative to league and park) of 146, which mean he gave up earned runs at a rate of 1/1.46 = 68.5% of the league average. He also had 900 IP (and 125 starts).
Of pitchers born 1918 (Feller) through 1971 (Pedro), I looked at the best pitchers via ERA+, with at least 700 IP and 90 starts in their age 29-32 seasons.
There were 14 pitchers who met the above thresholds, and had an ERA+ of 132 or better. The average ERA+ of those 14 pitchers was 145, and IP was 920.
Two of those pitchers had at least 181 wins from their age33 season onward: Randy Johnson and Warren Spahn. That’s 14%.
These are the 12 pitchers that did not get 181 wins, but were just as good as Cliff Lee, in their age 29 - age 32 seasons:
Greg Maddux
Pedro Martinez
Tom Glavine
Bob Gibson
John Smoltz
Jim Palmer
Kevin Brown
David Cone
Roger Clemens
Curt Schilling
Tom Seaver
Mike Mussina
If I look at the next group of 14 best pitchers, none of them got 181+ wins after age 32. If we look at the 14 best pitchers after that, one (Niekro) got at least 181+ wins.
The only other pitchers who managed to get 181+ wins after age 32 was Jamie Moyer.
Therefore, if I were to set the odds for Cliff Lee, it would probably be close to 10%.
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