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Wednesday, April 13, 2011
Odds of a good team having a bad year
If your team is a true .550 team, expect to observe that team play _x_ games under .500 (i.e., Losses minus Wins) after _y_ number of games purely by bad luck (no extra injuries, no extra change in talent, etc… just pure bad luck) 3% of the time:
Wins under .500 (after these many games)
6 (10)
7 (17)
8 (30)
9 (51)
10 (162)
Take for example the Redsox, who are 7 games under .500 after 11 games (2-9). Based on the above, we are 97% sure they are not a .550 team. It’s pretty close though. One win, they are 3-8, and now above this arbitrary line I set.
So, what you should be looking for: look for your team to go worse than 10 games under .500. Because once that happens, then you know you’re going to need a lot of good luck to go your way, because chances are, you don’t have enough talent.
97% of the time anyway.
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