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Tuesday, August 05, 2008
Observed Performance Inferring True Talent (OPITT)
I talked about this at length in the Edgar thread, so let me reserve this thread for more generic and technical arguments and presentation.
Let’s say you have someone who has a .380(*) career wOBA in 10,400 PA (16 seasons of 650 PA). How many standard deviations (SD) is he from the league mean of .340? Answer: 8.0
(*)For those new around here, a .380 wOBA is the same thing as a .380 OBP, with a corresponding profile of SLG, something like .475 or so.
A guy with a .380 wOBA in 10,400 PA is roughly +36 wins above average (WAA) and 69 wins above replacement (WAR). This is around the discussion level of someone being a hall of famer.
Now, suppose someone has a .420 wOBA. How many seasons does he have to play in order for us to say that he is 8 standard deviations from the league mean of 8.0? Answer: 4 seasons. That gives him a WAR of 26 wins and WAA of 18 seasons.
And a wOBA of .460? A little under 2 seasons. And a wOBA of .500? Just one season, with a 11 WAR and +9 WAA. That is a Bonds-like or Pujols-like season at their best.
So, is that enough? Is it enough to say that your performance is 8 standard deviations from the league mean, in order for your Observed performance to infer great talent?
I don’t know.
Now, let’s try asking: how far away are you from a .300 wOBA level, which is right close to replacement level. Here’s how that looks:
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