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THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

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Friday, August 07, 2009

Non-neutral zone Faceoffs

By Tangotiger, 03:43 PM

Some more cool work:

However, when you lose a faceoff in your own end, opponent shots on goal go up so quickly that it’s as though you gave the other team a 10-15 second power-play. For several seconds, the rate of shots allowed is as high as it is on a 5-on-3. The prospect of this level of defensive disadvantage, particularly late in a one-goal game, must give coaches nightmares. Coaches act rationally in the face of this danger, heavily tailoring their lines to the situation.

It is quite fascinating.  Basically, a player’s plus/minus is heavily influenced in the 15 seconds following a faceoff outside the neutral-zone, depending if you’ve got a great faceoff guy or not.  It’s stuff that may not appear so readily in aggregate totals, but obviously has a huge impact in which players a coach sends out.

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August 07, 2009
Non-neutral zone Faceoffs