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Thursday, December 16, 2010
No equilibrium in 2 point conversion? Run more!
More fascinating stuff from Brian. While the current overall success rate is 48%, when you break it up by rushes or not:
Still, even after removing all QB runs, conventional RB runs are successful 57% of the time. This suggests that if teams ran more often, the overall success rate would increase. Defenses would likely respond, and eventually the success rates for both running and passing would equalize at a success rate somewhat over 50%.
He had the QB plays at 75% for 47 runs and 43% for 525 non-runs (passes, sacks) for an average of 46%. So, if you handoff to the RB, you will get the 2 pointer 57% of the time. If the QB controls the ball, it’s 46% of the time. This means you should run more. As you run more, the defense will expect you to run more, and so, your success rate on runs will go down (while it will go up on QB plays). Now, it won’t necessarily settle at the mid point (51.5%). It’s possible that it will settle even less than 50%.
Here’s the question: is it even possible that it will settle at only 47%? That is, if you run “optimally”, then the success rate for QB and RB plays are both identical (say 47%). But, if you run sub-optimally, it’s 46% for QB plays and 57% for RB plays. Is it possible that increasing your running plays will have just negligible impact on the success rate of your QB plays (if the defense plays for the run, it would hamper the QB scrambles). So, can it be optimal to have a 46% / 57% split (overall average of 48%), rather than a 47% / 47% split? Or, does it necessarily follow that the split MUST be no less than 48% / 48%?
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