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Monday, April 06, 2009
NHL’s Plus/Minus, and scoring by number of skaters
Tom Awad comes closest to what I do:
To correctly adjust Plus/Minus, we must not subtract out the team’s entire performance, but rather 80% of the it, letting the player himself get credit for the remaining 20%. In Datsyuk’s case this means his adjusted +/- is 41 – 20.6 * 0.8 = 24.5.
He also adjusts for the goalie, which I also do. The key part in all that is the “80%”. Not exactly what I do, but the closest to anything that I’ve seen, with the key part being the 80%.
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Long-time poster here (Hawerchuk) has an article there as well, where he gives the stats by number of skaters. I’ll reorganize his key chart:
POT GF/60 GA/60 SF/60 SA/60 S%A S%F
5v5 74.7 2.45 2.45 29.3 29.3 916 916
4v4 3.1 3.08 3.08 31.9 31.9 903 903
3v3 0.01 10.11 10.11 37.1 37.2 727 728
5v4 10.5 6.50 0.91 51.1 8.4 873 892
4v3 0.18 10.96 0.25 74.4 4.8 853 947
5v3 0.38 20.25 0.12 98.9 1.5 795 917
I chopped off the other three lines he has because they mirror three other lines here.
Anyway, we see that in even-strength play, the number of shots stays pretty much the same for 5v5 and 4v4, but the goals shoot up by 25%. At 3v3, it’s not hockey any more. I’d be in favor of removing the 3v3 as a possibility, and simply tacking on penalties at the end of existing ones, rather than concurrently.
Same applies for 4v3: the number of goals scored and allowed is so lopsided, that it doesn’t become hockey anymore. For penalties in OT, I would bring back a player to make it 5v4.
5v3: this is the biggest joke of all. It’s kind of like shootout hockey actually: it’s not really hockey, but there is alot of tension, especially when a team can kill off that penalty. But, it looks more like tie-ing a boxer’s hand before a big fight.
I’d be happy with going strictly with 4v4 and 5v4 hockey.
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