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Wednesday, May 04, 2011
NHL Elo Player Rater
Justin and Sean are doing it for the NHL as well. I like the basic idea, as it’s similar to the head-to-head things that I’ve done in the past.
There’s a thing here or there that I don’t think works. I don’t think the cross-era comparisons work. Gordie Howe #19? Jean Beliveau being #62? I don’t think the forward-defense comparisons work either. Denis Savard #20 while Brian Leetch #52? I don’t think the goalies work at all. Ken Dryden #1 (since he only played 400 games in his career, he’s obviously only a peak candidate, but even then, his peak is not the best peak). Chris Osgood #6 is, well, embarrassing.
The reasons are pretty clear if you try the rater yourself. Notably, the voters are presented the stats, of possibly players they’ve never seen, and so, are asked to simply choose between which set of stats they like more. Without context, it’s easy to see why Jean Beliveau would come in so low, and why Osgood comes in so high. There’s not enough control to ensure the voter is voting appropriately.
So, I like the idea, I love the effort, and I think the execution can be improved. The results are somewhat reasonable, so it’s fun to look at.
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