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Thursday, April 29, 2010

NFL play-by-play files

By Tangotiger, 09:41 AM

Just what the doctor ordered

I’ve been meaning to construct a Markov program for football since, well, forever.  I used to play this great sports board game called CFL Sports Action Football.  Hands-down, the best sports board game I ever played.  The layout was pretty good, where each QB and each runner had different ratings from a “1” play to a “5” play.  The offense had to call the play as run or pass and the defense had to call the play as 1,2,3,4,5.  If the defense called “1” (run defense) and you called a run, well, your yardage gain would be from -1 to +5 or something.  If the defense called “5” (pass defense) and you called a run, well, your yardage gain would jump dramatically.  And the passing works similarly, with an extra provision on the offense of calling a short, medium, or long throw.  So, there was a strategy call on every play.  Just beautifully well-done.

My thought was always: well, how the hell am I supposed to know what to do, other than by instinct?  I was playing against my brother, and, he was in the same boat, so, it was instinct v instinct.  That did not stop me later on to try to figure it out, by making some decent guesses as to how much yardage you should get based on the strategy of the opponent.  The CFL put out this great little guide book (can fit in your pocket) that had alot of good data.

Anyway, I got a flashback to all that, and now Brian’s giving us the play-by-play data.  I’m hoping to get to this at some point before the season starts.  When you mix the three things I love to do (numbers,programming, and sports), I am in heaven.  Just what the doctor ordered.

(2) Comments • 2010/04/29 • SabermetricsRun_Win_ExpectancyOther SportsFootball
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April 29, 2010
NFL play-by-play files