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Thursday, March 25, 2010

Never bet against Regression Toward The Mean

By Tangotiger, 11:29 AM

In baseball, as I showed with Joe Mauer, or in hockey, with Henrik Sedin:

If you were going to bet on Henrik Sedin’s shooting percentage next season, would you take the over or the under on 18%? Note that in the original post, one of the commenters definitely took the over: “this whole discussion is meaningless...henrik will still end up with 35+ goals, so the discussion is also wrong...henrik is for real. there’s no way he regresses.”

Anybody else?!

(13) Comments • 2010/03/25 • Sabermetrics • Statistical_Theory • Other Sports • Hockey

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March 25, 2010
Never bet against Regression Toward The Mean