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Thursday, August 20, 2009
NBA preseason forecast results
Courtesy of Erich Doerr, via WoW. This is such a fantastic graph. It’ll take you a minute or two to get acclimated to it, but I love that he can present three different points on a 2-D model. Start with the “A” point, which is simply the actual 2008/09 season, and so has perfect correlation to itself:
- it’s on the x-axis (blue), which means that correlation is 1
- it’s also at the invisible green dotted line, which means that RMSE is 0
- and the x-axis (black), means that the standard deviation is 0
Ok, now that you know where “perfect” is on the graph, we can try to find the next perfect one. Eyeballing it, it looks like the letter Q (which, unsurprisingly is the Vegas odds): it has the lowest SD (closest to the x/y intesection point), it’s just a smidge ahead of others to the green dotted line (RMSE), and similarly to the blue line (correlation).
It is just such a fantastically wonderful graph, that I needed to highlight it. Goshdarn thing looks like a baseball field, and has nothing to do with baseball. I’d love to see others apply this 3-D on 2-D technique.
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