from Amazon
Thursday, April 05, 2007
Nate Silver meet Sean Forman, OR, why I really hate any and all predictions then, now and forever
Nate Silver posted his first impressions on Matsuzaka after the first inning, with the following prediction:
IP H R BB K NP W-L
4.2 4 3 4 3 98 ND
Here’s the game, courtesy of Fangraphs, with Matsuzaka getting 10K, 1 walk, and +.367 in WPA. (Santana had only two starts better than that last year in terms of WPA.) Sean Forman chimes in with the best initial game of all Redsox pitchers since 1957, and Matsuzaka comes in fifth.
I’m using Nate as my foil, but it could have been any other intelligent, well-respected analyst out there. If Nate was right, what would have been the reaction from his readers? I dunno. But his prediction is the complete opposite of what really happened. Nate was wrong, and the opposite of would have happened if he was right should happen now.
The truth of the matter is that we all know sh-t. You, me, Nate, the manager, the opposing hitters. We can’t tell who’s on or who’s off. Maybe only the pitcher himself knows, and that’s a maybe.
This is the same thing with all the stock predictions. Do you know how many stock predictions are given out on TV and in major media every month? Thousands. Do you know how many track these guys, to see how well they do? I found one site, and every year the Wall Street Journal does an analysis. And you know what? Virtually all these experts can predict the future as well as mom&pop. And with all those expert football picks of the week? Long-term, they’re almost all around .500. The BP chats are filled with “what do you think this guy will do”.
That’s why I hate predictions. They mean nothing, unless you are held accountable.
Recent comments
Older comments
Page 1 of 344 pages 1 2 3 > Last »Complete Archive – By Category
Complete Archive – By Date