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Wednesday, October 07, 2009
Nate McLouth v Joe Sheehan
Looks like the blogosphere is all a-twitter regarding Joe Sheehan saying:
Nate McLouth is still a fourth OF masquerading as a starting CF.
First up is Colin Wyers who looks at BPro’s own metrics, as well as Fangaphs, and concludes that McLouth is at least an overall average player. Colin also links to JC, who also concludes he’s at least an overall average player. Then there’s the Primates, who either agree that McLouth is a starting MLB OF, or think that Sheehan doesn’t know what he’s talking about.
What say I? Coming into 2009, I had McLouth as a 2.5 WAR player. That put him 30th in MLB for all outfielders. Basically, if you are a 1.5 WAR player (or better), you are a starting player in MLB. To relegate McLouth as a 4th outfielder is ridiculous.
What’s the breakdown on McLouth?
Offense: he’s a .351 career wOBA hitter, and was .350 in 2009. That puts him as +1 to +1.5 wins per 162G as a hitter.
Fielding: UZR has him as -0.5 to -1.0 wins per 162G in CF. WOWY has him as -0.5 wins. The Fans have him ranked as 44th out of 50 centerfielders. Not terrible, but pretty much on the border of “get this guy to the corners, soon”. Say that’s -1 wins. So, that’s a pretty good consensus.
Position: +0.25 wins for being a CF
Overall, that makes him a +0.5 wins above average player. We are all in agreement here. And remember,if you are 0.5 wins BELOW average, you are STILL a MLB starting outfielder (on the cusp of being a 4th outfielder). Basically, Joe shot his mouth off, and he should simply retract his statement.
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