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Thursday, September 16, 2010
My mini-study on attendance and wins
I did this seven years ago, and it was a very quick study, FWIW:
Commenting only on this
While we’re studying all the miscellaneous non-play-by-play data, I think it would also be revealing to understand the correlation between homefield winning percentage and attendance (ie >40,000, as a % of capacity, etc). It’s my hope that such a study would encourage otherwise unenlightened ownership groups to market their ballclubs to maximize attendance, rather than gate revenue.I just ran a very simple study that took the top 100 attendance figures (where available) for each team from 1974-1990, and looked at how often each team won. The team win% was almost 55%.
When you realize that the normal HFA is 54%, that doesn’t look too impressive.
Re-running the study so that this time I took the top 5 attendance figures per team/year, the home team won 50% of the games.
I’m sure that there are other biases that I did not account for (quality of opposition for one), and that there are better statistical methods.
A regression analysis between wins and attendance (no separation of team or year) was virtually zero.
My bet is that maximizing revenue is probably the best goal, but that you have a secondary goal to maximize your fans so that you develop a loyal following. But if ownership churns every 5-10 years, that secondary goal becomes an easily ignored goal.
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