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Wednesday, December 22, 2010
Multi-year relievers
Eric and Dave both gave us a list of relievers signed to multi-year deals.
Using Eric’s data, which excludes Mariano, we see that his list of 19 multi-year relievers signed for 50 years at 235MM$ (with of course 20MM$ of that being the league minimum). The total WARP accumulated was 38 wins. That’s an average of 5.7MM marginal $ per win.
Since WARP has a lower replacement level, the baseline $ per win is less than what we are used to, about 10-20% less (because there are 10% more WARP than fWAR and 20% more WARP than rWAR).
Anyway, no surprise that relievers are hugely overpaid. But it might not be because they are relievers, because as Eric points out, all these guys are old. So, it’s unclear if they are being overpaid because they are relievers, they are old, or they are old relievers.
They should be paid about 30% less based on these results.
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Eric also shows us some numbers for one year relievers. He doesn’t show the total number of relievers, and it’s unclear if the overall average he shows is a simple average or multi-year average. Nonetheless, it likely won’t matter much here: 2.2MM$ above the minimum for 0.8 WARP wins, or 2.75MM$ per win. This is pretty much standard of what you’d expect from one-year deals at any position: a huge discount.
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I’ll ask Eric for the total number of relievers in his one year group, we can come up with the aggregated total.
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