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Thursday, March 04, 2010
Move over Marcel, evolution says… Oliver
It sounds like Marcel, but it does (at least) one of the three main things Marcel does not do:
Of course, the thing you’re probably most interested in is the projections themselves. Oliver uses a simple weighted mean of the previous three seasons, with aging factors and regression to the mean. Adding extra complication has not proven to add any accuracy—what really makes the system shine is the quality of its minor league translations.
The other two things is: component aging and park factors. If Oliver does that, then, well it should take its place alongside CHONE. Whether they are better or worse than the industry-standard CHONE, well, we’ll have to wait until next year.
Note: Access to Oliver is limited to THT subscribers for $15, and you get commentary from 30 THT bloggers, plus more. Sounds like an intriguing product.
Update: As the readers pointed out, Wieters II rears its ugly head. Is it possible to forecast any non-MLB player with a peak talent level of 8 WAR? I’d have to say, no, it’s not possible.
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