THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

Monday, March 15, 2010

Morgan Ensberg, saberist

Ensberg says:

What’s my point?

Eckstein’s hit in the “5–6″ hole was the difference in the game.  I was not positioned properly at third base.

Why does it matter?

If Eckstein get’s on base, Lidge had to face the lefty Edmonds. In 2004 and 2005, Edmonds hit 4 home runs into the left field Crawford Boxes.  Behind Edmonds is Pujols, the best hitter the game has ever seen.

Positioning of fielders

Position is vital in baseball.  The key is to align your fielders according to the spray chart.  If the pitcher’s plan does not line up with the defense, the batter has a greater chance to get a hit in that vacated spot.

This is a spray chart from 2005 (put in 2005 and Minute Maid Park) showing every location Eckstein hit a baseball at Minute Maid Park.  With the Cardinals down 2 runs, we are certain that he will take a strike (I will explain that reason another day) because even if he hits a hr, they are still down by 1 run.  Sometimes power hitters are allowed to “swing away” if a hr can tie a game. That means that Eckstein will be working with just 2 strikes against a closer throwing close to 100 mph. Knowing that, his swing will be shorter and he will be trying to make contact which lessens his chances of pulling a ball down the line.

Viewpoint

But you should know that there is a optical illusion at Minute Maid Park. Phil Garner (manager) sits in the first chair of the dugout protected by the handicap elevator in the first base dugout. From his vantage point, it looks like the third baseman is directly inline with him.  However, the view from the third baseman’s vantage point is off to the left by about 5 feet.  This is a problem.

Garner is lining me up according to the spray chart, but I am not where he thinks he is moving me.  I am actually closer to the line then he would want due to the illusion but there is nothing that can be done.  From his view I am in the exact spot that I need to be.

Why didn’t you move closer to the hole then?

1.  You do what the manager says. He has the spray charts in front of him.  Managers use that information as a starting point and move players according to the pitcher’s plan against the batter.

2.  With that said, I believe he is adjusting me according to Lidge’s plan against Eckstein.

So how do you know you were positioned wrong?

If a ball is hit where the chart says, then the positioning was wrong.  Phil knew where Eckstein usually hits the ball and knew how Lidge would pitch Eckstein.  Phil took those 2 points into consideration and moved me to the exact location on the chart that he wanted me.

Conclusion

Now that I am positioned, we look back at the match–up.  Lidge is a power pitcher who was touching 100 mph and throwing a slider at close to 92 mph.  At those speeds hitters can’t help but hit the ball up the middle or the other way (opposite field).  Phil will move me off the line but he will stop me a couple feet short of his intended target.  If Phil’s view wasn’t off–set, I could have made the play and the game would have been over. Lidge throws a fast ball that Eckstein hits in the “5-6″ hole for a base hit.

Two batters later, Pujols makes history and there is no optical illusion involved there at all.

Glove-slap: berselius.