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Friday, April 02, 2010
More ERA# shop talk
Excellent insight by Kincaid:
To actually calculate the combined ERA+ by averaging each individual ERA+, you would have to weight each individual ERA+ not just by IP, but by the quantity IP * lgERA. As you can see, seasons where the league ERA is higher than average will get more weight in the calculation, and seasons where the league ERA is lower than average will get less weight.
Wowza yowza. I hadn’t thought of that. If the idea is to scale to the league average, then the correct thing to do would be to scale down the actual ER. This really means that you’ve got to scale at the game level in order to be able to do the right thing. Gotta admit, that took me for a loop. Read his presentation, because it’s going to give you something to think about, especially if you are coming in this cold, and are looking at it from a clean slate.
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