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Thursday, April 08, 2010

More ERA/FIP forecasting

By Tangotiger, 09:39 PM

By using a system like this one, it’s possible to include Brandon Webb’s results in my training set, without giving them unfair weighting (and thus regressing too far toward the mean for guys with more meaningful sample sizes).

As my SO9 article showed, this method (compared to simple IP cutoffs with equal weights assigned to all instances) had the same error on higher-IP pitchers, but had much lower error for low-IP guys. As the specificity of training principle would indicate, you can’t predict instances well if you don’t train on similar instances.

(1) Comments • 2010/04/10 • Sabermetrics • Pitchers

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April 08, 2010
More ERA/FIP forecasting