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THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

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Monday, January 16, 2012

More discussions of players and not contracts…

By , 04:51 PM

I’m listening to the Baseball America show on MLB XM radio the other day, and they are having a serious conversation about the Yankee/Mariners trade. They are going on and on about how the Yankees would have loved to have gotten Felix rather than Pineda, but that there is no way that would have happened since they (Yankees) would have had to give up a mountain of players.

I just don’t understand this thinking/discussion.  Felix is projected as a 4-5 WAR pitcher in 2012, and less in 2013 and 2014.  His salary for those 3 years is close to 20 mil a year. Basically there is little or no equity in owning Felix. Pineda, on the other hand, is a 3 or more WAR or more player going forward (depending on whose projection you believe), but earns the MLB minimum and is under control for 5 more years! He has tons of equity!

So you would want or have to give up the house (like Montero plus) for Pineda but almost nothing for Hernandez.  All of these media analysts have it completely backwards. Can they be so stupid as to completely misunderstand how the value of a player works? Am I missing something?

I have heard the same discussion I heard on the radio in many other media and fan venues…

(81) Comments • 2012/01/21
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January 16, 2012
More discussions of players and not contracts…