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Thursday, January 20, 2011
MLBPA: be scared… be very very scared
Carl Pavano is Jake Westbrook. I had one at 2.6 WAR and the other at 2.4 WAR. It doesn’t really matter which is which. They are, basically, each 2.5 WAR pitchers in 2011 and 2.0 WAR pitchers in 2012. That’s 4.5 wins, which means about 18MM$ (maybe a bit less because 1yr definitely, and 2 yr possibly, players sign for discounts to some extent). And they signed 2/16.5MM$ contracts.
There is sanity in the marketplace. The owners have signed themselves smart GMs and smart assistant GMs, and smart guys in their front office. And they look at the smart people in the blogosphere. This is no longer the wild west, where they used intuition to value the talent level of players and their impact on their teams.
And, MLBPA, you know this. You agree with the rest of us on how to value players. You’d have to, because you are smart too.
And you boxed yourself in because the young players, those who don’t quality for arbitration for the first three years, earn a maximum of 2MM$ total, or more likely 1.5MM$ total. Even the NHL pays its young players more, and they have less than half the revenue of MLB. And even players who qualify for arbitration make 50 cents on the free agent dollar, again, a much lower rate than the NHL pays its pre-free agency players. In your quest to protect the veterans, and the hope that their rising tide would lift all the other boats, you are now where you are.
So, be smart, and beg for revenue-splitting, because without a guarantee of a share of the pie, and with pre-free agency severely limiting the bargaining power of players, the players’ share will continue to fall.
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