THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

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An in-depth analysis of: The sacrifice bunt, batter/pitcher matchups, the intentional base on balls, optimizing a batting lineup, hot and cold streaks, clutch performance, platooning strategies, and much more.
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Monday, October 02, 2006

Misunderstanding Win Expectancy

By Tangotiger, 09:30 AM

Via studes’ blog, I ended up here, at Crawfish Boxes, who says:

Now, fairness compels me to state that the WPA contraption does not see a big difference between a man on second and a man on third with two outs there. And it says that the play cost us a little over 70 points of win probability.
But I say that’s bullshit.

I thought putting out a book that explains how it all works would stop me from explaining how it all works. Let me explain how it all works.

Oct 07 09:59		Sabermetric Playoffs
Oct 06 00:27		Sabermetric Moves of the 2009 Pre-Season
Oct 07 09:56		Evaluating the 2008 Forecasting Systems
Oct 07 07:41		Lock this in a vault or put it in a hermetically sealed envelope…
Oct 07 03:40		Power or Finesse Pitchers in the Post-season?
Oct 06 22:50		While it is next to impossible for us (as outsiders) to evaluate managers…
Oct 06 22:19		The worst hitting season of all-time?
Oct 06 22:02		Who should switch positions?
Oct 06 16:54		Sarah Palin, her family, and the Bible
Oct 06 15:45		Mailbags on Parade
Oct 06 00:47		HR rates by height
Oct 06 00:38		How can we “predict” which teams will do well in the post-season?
Oct 05 01:05		Complete Run Expectancy, Retrosheet Years
Oct 04 17:08		In-season Marcels
Oct 04 13:52		Baseball Thesis
Oct 04 12:50		Quick Park Factors
Oct 04 08:14		Situational Wins
Oct 03 21:24		Basic Aging Curve for Hitters, 1957-2006
Oct 03 18:57		Complete Linear Weights, 2008
Oct 03 10:37		Child prodigies
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THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

Monday, October 02, 2006

Misunderstanding Win Expectancy

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