The Unwritten Book is Finally Written!
An in-depth analysis of: The sacrifice bunt, batter/pitcher matchups, the intentional base on balls, optimizing a batting lineup, hot and cold streaks, clutch performance, platooning strategies, and much more. Read Excerpts & Customer Reviews
It's safe to assume that Scioscia elected to face Matsui because he feared the game-tying HR to Alex Rodriguez. But by walking him, he's opening himself up for the more likely game-tying extra-base hit.
Over his career, Alex Rodriguez has hit a HR in 6.1 percent of his plate appearances net IBB. Matsui has hit an XBH in 9.1 percent of his plate appearances.
The only explanation for Girardi pinch-running Guzman is the marginal benefit of plating on a Matsui double since Guzman didn't even attempt a steal. Maybe Guzman doesn't score 9.1% of the time but it's pretty close to that and certainly more likely than a A-Rod homer.
I was wondering the same thing so I checked out the article for the answer:
"The last column shows how pitchers did relative to their seasonal averages in game score, so pitchers are, in effect, compared to themselves. All pitchers are a little worse than average in the postseason because they are facing top offenses."
Tom- Vlad struck out last night but this does not prove that the Hunter IBB was the correct move. Don't let one outcome cloud your concept of probabilities.
Even if Francona were no different than the other managers, they would all be guilty of the same offense (lowering the chances of winning). It does not exonerate him.
Also, even though the two likelihoods of an out are probable, one is more likely to occur and therefore the better choice. If a basketball player shoots 51% lefthanded and 86% righthanded, he shouldn't shoot lefty simply because he's likely to make it anyway.
Speaking of blame and overmanaging, I can't believe Grady Little hasn't been brought up yet.
It's safe to assume that Scioscia elected to face Matsui because he feared the game-tying HR to Alex Rodriguez. But by walking him, he's opening himself up for the more likely game-tying extra-base hit. Over his career, Alex Rodriguez has hit a HR in 6.1 percent of his plate appearances net IBB. Matsui has hit an XBH in 9.1 percent of his plate appearances. The only explanation for Girardi pinch-running Guzman is the marginal benefit of plating on a Matsui double since Guzman didn't even attempt a steal. Maybe Guzman doesn't score 9.1% of the time but it's pretty close to that and certainly more likely than a A-Rod homer.
Performance in playoffs on short-rest (Tom Haberstroh) —
I was wondering the same thing so I checked out the article for the answer: "The last column shows how pitchers did relative to their seasonal averages in game score, so pitchers are, in effect, compared to themselves. All pitchers are a little worse than average in the postseason because they are facing top offenses."
I am going to tell you why managers like Francona do dumb things like IBB Hunter... (Tom Haberstroh) —
Tom- Vlad struck out last night but this does not prove that the Hunter IBB was the correct move. Don't let one outcome cloud your concept of probabilities. Even if Francona were no different than the other managers, they would all be guilty of the same offense (lowering the chances of winning). It does not exonerate him. Also, even though the two likelihoods of an out are probable, one is more likely to occur and therefore the better choice. If a basketball player shoots 51% lefthanded and 86% righthanded, he shouldn't shoot lefty simply because he's likely to make it anyway. Speaking of blame and overmanaging, I can't believe Grady Little hasn't been brought up yet.