The Unwritten Book is Finally Written!
An in-depth analysis of: The sacrifice bunt, batter/pitcher matchups, the intentional base on balls, optimizing a batting lineup, hot and cold streaks, clutch performance, platooning strategies, and much more. Read Excerpts & Customer Reviews
But 14.2 minus 11 = 3.2, not "less than $1". Plus, that ignores the team increased expenditures on player development (by $1.9 million), which should have no effect on your analysis of regular season earnings.
I just bought concert tickets for "$29.50" on Ticket Master. Here's the breakdown at the end:
Tickets: 29.50
Facility Charge: 2.75
Convenience Charge: 8.90
Order Processing Fee: 5.65
TOTAL: 46.55
Of course, none of those fees came were shown until when they wanted me to enter my CC info.
Mike,
Hockey players try to line up so the point of release is lined up with the net, not where the puck is on the ice. If you watch a slow motion wrist shot the puck leaves the stick while in the air, not along the ice.
Matt: Additionally I think his point is circular, inasmuch he claims trades don't have winners and losers because they wouldn't be consummated if they did. Can a trade have a winner/loser? Only as long as it hasn't happened. The moment a trade is finalized both teams win because they got returns. That idea borders between delusionally idealist and purposely misleading. Also I think he's is missing some big differences between a market writ large and the baseball market which operates with a set of different rules/restrictions. By his circularity he can't say any GM is better than any other, they are constantly justified by their position of authority. They know more than you, therefore they can't lose.
His whole post is riddled with false choices, strawmen, poorly-defined criteria, and some grandiose concept of objective reality.
If we look at "Every trade has a winner and a loser." He doesn't define winner and loser in this case. He is setting up the strawman of a zero-sum game. Nobody is arguing that a trade cant add wins to both teams, but it still doesn't remove the concept of superior return. If 2 teams swap excess depth to fill positions of need they can both have better teams. BUT one team can still win that trade. In fact I would argue it would be impossible for a trade not to have a winner and loser, unless both teams exchange players of EXACTLY equal relative value. Believing you are getting value back doesn't make it so.
"old players are worthless" Yeah that sounds like a myth that needs debunking. Lazy fallacious hyperbole.
The most preposterous claim of the piece has to be "You can't sell high or buy low and profit financially because all GMs understand these things. You don't have to wait for a guy to get hot to sell him, nor dump him before he gets cold" Because if their is one thing we've seen over and over again markets are always perfectly valuing assets! Is he attempting to disprove the concept of market inefficiency? I think he underestimates the length and depth a cold or hot streak can go. JJ Hardy, eh?
I have a lot of experience with MySQL, but very little with views. Mostly because I've always been told not to use them.
Also, EXPLAIN is your best friend for optimizing queries in MySQL.
See:
http://www.mysqlperformanceblog.com/2007/08/12/mysql-view-as-performance-troublemaker/
I love the idea, I think it adds more strategic thinking to the game without changing much. From what I understand, with this system offense would get more effective and score more runs. What sort of run difference are we talking about here? maybe 0.1-0.2 per nine innings? Is there any way a simulator can run this type of thing?
I ain't no lawyer -- and MGL is -- but isn't it the law that once one party has breached a contract in a significant way, the other party can cancel it?
Just wondering.
The bat will feel lighter, but to swing a heavier bat the player has to change the way he swings. Since the biomechanics of the swing change with heavier weights, a return to the original bat will result in worse technique and timing.
If you are into this type of research, check this link out: http://www.sbcoachescollege.com/articles/OverloadUnderloadBaseball.html
Clarification:
Collusion says, "If you do X, which is not your best strategy, I will do Y, which is not MY best strategy, but we will both gain over our otherwise best strategies."
The way I phrased it in post 9 was not correct, and could be a number of things: collusion, threat, or just a statement of my best non-collusive response to your strategy.
I predict that if some NHL goalie tried those pads, the "pansy" rules would follow very quickly.
BTW, how about painting your pads so they look like the other team's socks? Now THAT would be interesting.
Did the author note how many games were in each conference rivalry? Maybe we can get use some Bayesian method to get an estimate of the "true" disparity in talent.
I believe in Clemens' moral (although not legal) right to commit perjury here. I do not believe the government should have the power to subpoena people and force them to testify under oath to embarrassing matters, just because they feel like it.
Although I have to admit that I'm not really following all this ... while Clemens might be there voluntarily, it's government overstepping that put him in the position that he's in.
If the goverment has evidence that Clemens broke the law, they should charge him. Otherwise, it should be between him and MLB.
But aren't errors one of the "most" pitcher/runner/batter independent measures of skill? I mean, if you want to measure *something* to try to cast light on this question, I think errors are it.
Also, infield singles ... on my crappy softball team, any ball hit towards third base is probably a hit with the bases empty. In the majors, it's almost always an out. It makes sense that there'd be a graduation of skill in between.
Tango/6: agreed. My point is only that everyone becomes a "footnote" as the quality of play improves. I see no reason to single out the white players in the time of the Negro Leagues, except morally.
And, of course (as maybe you were implying), the situation with the Russian players is also a moral one -- the USSR's human rights record is arguably similar in some ways to MLB's treatment of black players.
I'm not sure I agree.
First, is this a moral argument or an empirical one? If it's a moral one, I have more sympathy with it. If it's an empirical one, arguing that the quality of the league wasn't very good, I would again argue (as I have before) that what matters is the size of the population, not whether any people in particular were barred. Early 20th century MLB was worse than today's, although it's "more worse" than it would have been if it had let black players in. I'm not sure it has empirical significance any different from the fact that many people CHOSE not to pursue a baseball career because of low wages, or other such era-specific circumstances. (Again, that's empirically. Morally, there's a huge difference.)
Suppose, for the sake of argument, that someone finds a tribe in Antarctica, of 300 million people, who have been playing baseball (in the cold) for 100 years. Does that mean that all of today's records are footnotes because the antarticans weren't in MLB?
The population of the world will probably keep growing, and the caliber of baseball players in MLB will get better and better. By Tango's logic, EVERY era is a "footnote" compared to every future era.
Hi, John,
What I'm saying is that if you normalize X and Y to have mean 0 and SD 1, then
E(X | Y=c) / c = r
SD(X) and SD(Y) can be anything at all, obviously, whether there's a correlation or not. So SD(X)/SD(Y) alone doesn't represent anything significant.
If that makes sense.
But 14.2 minus 11 = 3.2, not "less than $1". Plus, that ignores the team increased expenditures on player development (by $1.9 million), which should have no effect on your analysis of regular season earnings.
The single price (Phil) —
I just bought concert tickets for "$29.50" on Ticket Master. Here's the breakdown at the end: Tickets: 29.50 Facility Charge: 2.75 Convenience Charge: 8.90 Order Processing Fee: 5.65 TOTAL: 46.55 Of course, none of those fees came were shown until when they wanted me to enter my CC info.
Friday Mail: Sabermetric licence plate (Phil) —
JAMES4HOF
Handedness in the NHL (Phil) —
Mike, Hockey players try to line up so the point of release is lined up with the net, not where the puck is on the ice. If you watch a slow motion wrist shot the puck leaves the stick while in the air, not along the ice.
Article by JC in the Huffington Post (Phil) —
Matt: Additionally I think his point is circular, inasmuch he claims trades don't have winners and losers because they wouldn't be consummated if they did. Can a trade have a winner/loser? Only as long as it hasn't happened. The moment a trade is finalized both teams win because they got returns. That idea borders between delusionally idealist and purposely misleading. Also I think he's is missing some big differences between a market writ large and the baseball market which operates with a set of different rules/restrictions. By his circularity he can't say any GM is better than any other, they are constantly justified by their position of authority. They know more than you, therefore they can't lose.
Article by JC in the Huffington Post (Phil) —
His whole post is riddled with false choices, strawmen, poorly-defined criteria, and some grandiose concept of objective reality. If we look at "Every trade has a winner and a loser." He doesn't define winner and loser in this case. He is setting up the strawman of a zero-sum game. Nobody is arguing that a trade cant add wins to both teams, but it still doesn't remove the concept of superior return. If 2 teams swap excess depth to fill positions of need they can both have better teams. BUT one team can still win that trade. In fact I would argue it would be impossible for a trade not to have a winner and loser, unless both teams exchange players of EXACTLY equal relative value. Believing you are getting value back doesn't make it so. "old players are worthless" Yeah that sounds like a myth that needs debunking. Lazy fallacious hyperbole. The most preposterous claim of the piece has to be "You can't sell high or buy low and profit financially because all GMs understand these things. You don't have to wait for a guy to get hot to sell him, nor dump him before he gets cold" Because if their is one thing we've seen over and over again markets are always perfectly valuing assets! Is he attempting to disprove the concept of market inefficiency? I think he underestimates the length and depth a cold or hot streak can go. JJ Hardy, eh?
It was the best of times, it was the worst of times (phil) —
you'd kind of expect his wOBA to go up hitting in citizens.
MySQL views are terrible (Phil) —
I have a lot of experience with MySQL, but very little with views. Mostly because I've always been told not to use them. Also, EXPLAIN is your best friend for optimizing queries in MySQL. See: http://www.mysqlperformanceblog.com/2007/08/12/mysql-view-as-performance-troublemaker/
New baseball rule: changing the structure of the batting order? (Phil) —
I love the idea, I think it adds more strategic thinking to the game without changing much. From what I understand, with this system offense would get more effective and score more runs. What sort of run difference are we talking about here? maybe 0.1-0.2 per nine innings? Is there any way a simulator can run this type of thing?
The Publisher of The Book (Potomac Books) has finally paid us our royalties (Phil) —
I ain't no lawyer -- and MGL is -- but isn't it the law that once one party has breached a contract in a significant way, the other party can cancel it? Just wondering.
Should you practice with a lighter, heavier, or your game bat? (Phil) —
The bat will feel lighter, but to swing a heavier bat the player has to change the way he swings. Since the biomechanics of the swing change with heavier weights, a return to the original bat will result in worse technique and timing. If you are into this type of research, check this link out: http://www.sbcoachescollege.com/articles/OverloadUnderloadBaseball.html
Collusion in MLB? (Phil) —
Clarification: Collusion says, "If you do X, which is not your best strategy, I will do Y, which is not MY best strategy, but we will both gain over our otherwise best strategies." The way I phrased it in post 9 was not correct, and could be a number of things: collusion, threat, or just a statement of my best non-collusive response to your strategy.
Goalieflage (Phil) —
I predict that if some NHL goalie tried those pads, the "pansy" rules would follow very quickly. BTW, how about painting your pads so they look like the other team's socks? Now THAT would be interesting.
Goalieflage (Phil) —
And someone should invent a pitcher's jersey with the design of baseballs on them!
Talent disparity inter-conference in sports leagues (Phil) —
Did the author note how many games were in each conference rivalry? Maybe we can get use some Bayesian method to get an estimate of the "true" disparity in talent.
Francoeur (Phil) —
JC has now turned off comments forever: http://www.sabernomics.com/sabernomics/index.php/2009/02/removing-the-comments-feature/
Race Report Card (Phil) —
ChuckO, I think he's saying the opposite: that it's the small ball skills that blacks are better at.
BE Press (Phil) —
Just enter "none" for institution and "non-academic researcher" and it'll let you download.
Liveblogging Clemens (Phil) —
Does the constitution have something to say about use of government coercion for fishing expeditions?
Liveblogging Clemens (Phil) —
I believe in Clemens' moral (although not legal) right to commit perjury here. I do not believe the government should have the power to subpoena people and force them to testify under oath to embarrassing matters, just because they feel like it. Although I have to admit that I'm not really following all this ... while Clemens might be there voluntarily, it's government overstepping that put him in the position that he's in. If the goverment has evidence that Clemens broke the law, they should charge him. Otherwise, it should be between him and MLB.
Quality of play in other leagues (Phil) —
But aren't errors one of the "most" pitcher/runner/batter independent measures of skill? I mean, if you want to measure *something* to try to cast light on this question, I think errors are it. Also, infield singles ... on my crappy softball team, any ball hit towards third base is probably a hit with the bases empty. In the majors, it's almost always an out. It makes sense that there'd be a graduation of skill in between.
The Modern Day begins in 1947 (Phil) —
Tango/6: agreed. My point is only that everyone becomes a "footnote" as the quality of play improves. I see no reason to single out the white players in the time of the Negro Leagues, except morally. And, of course (as maybe you were implying), the situation with the Russian players is also a moral one -- the USSR's human rights record is arguably similar in some ways to MLB's treatment of black players.
The Modern Day begins in 1947 (Phil) —
I'm not sure I agree. First, is this a moral argument or an empirical one? If it's a moral one, I have more sympathy with it. If it's an empirical one, arguing that the quality of the league wasn't very good, I would again argue (as I have before) that what matters is the size of the population, not whether any people in particular were barred. Early 20th century MLB was worse than today's, although it's "more worse" than it would have been if it had let black players in. I'm not sure it has empirical significance any different from the fact that many people CHOSE not to pursue a baseball career because of low wages, or other such era-specific circumstances. (Again, that's empirically. Morally, there's a huge difference.) Suppose, for the sake of argument, that someone finds a tribe in Antarctica, of 300 million people, who have been playing baseball (in the cold) for 100 years. Does that mean that all of today's records are footnotes because the antarticans weren't in MLB? The population of the world will probably keep growing, and the caliber of baseball players in MLB will get better and better. By Tango's logic, EVERY era is a "footnote" compared to every future era.
Situational Pitching (Phil) —
Tango, you want to remove the : from the link and replace it with / .
Forecasters: How Accurate Can They Possibly Be? (Phil) —
Hi, John, What I'm saying is that if you normalize X and Y to have mean 0 and SD 1, then E(X | Y=c) / c = r SD(X) and SD(Y) can be anything at all, obviously, whether there's a correlation or not. So SD(X)/SD(Y) alone doesn't represent anything significant. If that makes sense.