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Nothing official has been announced, but you can bet there will be some sort of moment of silence or other measure of rememberance.
I'm sure there will be an enhanced atmosphere, but there are a couple of other things at work. For one, this is the first home game since the 4th of July and more importantly, it's a Friday night. Though it would be a smaller sample size, I think the better comparison would be to the average Friday night game, not price of an average home game.
IIRC, UZR doesn't count infield line drives at all. Is that accurate?
If so, is it possible that Teixeira is above average at snaring liners, thereby impressing fans but evading quantification on those plays? I doubt that would account for the whole gap between the common perception of Teix as a solid defender and UZR's lukewarm rating, but it might help reconcile some of the difference.
I would have voted as well, but as Dick Williams would say: "I should never have to give you a sign. The situation dictates what happens."
So I think I'll just pass on this one.
Boy we could all use an article like that on a Friday.
I'd just like to thank Harry and everyone else for helping me figure all this out.
With the new information I am reading, I'm fairly certain Harry has already covered some of the things I'm trying to get at with my charts and he referred to that work in post 35:
http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2009/6/9/903793/optimal-launch-speed-and-angle-for
Looking at the moving charts at the bottom of the comments section is particularly mesmerizing, so great work as always Harry.
So just to clarify:
If i'm trying to do LW's for pitch type analysis, hitter or pitcher perspective, use the LW's by count.
If i'm trying to do LW's with regards to base state and outs, use: http://www.tangotiger.net/lwtsrobo.html
And finally for batted ball LW's, regardless of base state, count and outs, use: 1B = .48, 2B = .78, 3B = 1.06, HR = 1.40, Batter reached Error = .51, batted out = (-.288).
I think that should be correct. Slowly backing away now......
I'll take all the feedback I can get guys. It's the only way I'll figure all this stuff out. Most of my knowledge of this stuff has come through comments in these blog threads, so I find them invaluable.
Having limited experience to rely upon with this analysis, it's a learn as you go process. For me at least.
JBrew: You are correct, the chart was flipped so throw out the above analysis. I'll post the updated one:
Peter: I do have the count information. I was just using linear weights from an early 2008 article, Harry was just updating the values for me.
Trying the -45-0-45 approach:
While we are here, this is the average RV by launch angle:
11.5 degrees is the top average launch angle, by run value.
Here are the values for a left handed batter with a runner on first vs no one on.
As expected, the run value drops down the first base line with the fielder holding the runner. The gap between first and second open up while the value drops up the middle, probably because teams playing for the double play/steal attempt.
Using Harry's updated run values, here are the average run values by spray location according to hit f/x for April. I have taken out the bunts.
45 degrees is down the left field line and 135 degrees is down the right field line. The highest average run value is RHB that go opposite field.
The four main dips in value for LHB is where the infielders play, if I had to guess. I know there has been a lot of discussion in this blog recently about fielding position, so i'm going to stay away from that.
I can't get the formatting right in the comments section, but if you want to see the results in an easier to read format, just go here
Sorry guys. Feel free to post the chart in here if you can get it to work.
If there is interest, I can give the result by spray and launch as well.
Thanks
Also, Ken Singleton.
Career 132 OPS+.
.282/.388/.436 in 15 seasons.
3-time All-Star.
1263 BB & 1246 K in his career.
.333/.391/.421 in 4 post-season series.
Keith Hernandez.
MVP, 2-time Silver Slugger, 5-time All-Star (not completely underrated with those credentials but significantly overlooked on the H.o.F. balloting).
.296/.384/.436 over 17 seasons.
2-time WS Champion, .265/.370/.359 (not great) in 5 post-season series (30 games).
Generally regarded as one of the best defensive 1B ever and certainly of his generation.
Okay, so I now get DPA and how that matches with a player's offense and defensive runs above/below average to determine his dollar value. However, I am unsure of something on the offensive side. Do we compare all players (whether they are OF, IF, C, etc.) to replacement level of 20 runs, -2 wins or is it better to break it into 4 position groups: 1) OF replacement level is used for all OF, C replacement level is used for all catchers, 3) 1B replacement level is used for all 1B, 4) SS/3B/2B replacement level is used for all SS/3B/2B.
This is the only part I'm confused about. Thanks.
I worked for the Pawtucket Red Sox for 4 years and I can tell you for a fact that they let fans come in before announcing a rainout. I can remember multiple occasions where we knew the game would be postponed about an hour before game time but they welcomed in the fans in and made them sit in the rain until game time, at which point they announced the rainout.
It is all done for a simple reason: Concessions. If you are sitting at the park, waiting for the rain to end, you are going to eat and drink. The tickets are refundable, but as long as they let the fans in, they can cash in concession wise as well. It is a win-win situation for the team.
Nothing official has been announced, but you can bet there will be some sort of moment of silence or other measure of rememberance. I'm sure there will be an enhanced atmosphere, but there are a couple of other things at work. For one, this is the first home game since the 4th of July and more importantly, it's a Friday night. Though it would be a smaller sample size, I think the better comparison would be to the average Friday night game, not price of an average home game.
Mike Silva chronicles: UZR and Teix (Jay) —
IIRC, UZR doesn't count infield line drives at all. Is that accurate? If so, is it possible that Teixeira is above average at snaring liners, thereby impressing fans but evading quantification on those plays? I doubt that would account for the whole gap between the common perception of Teix as a solid defender and UZR's lukewarm rating, but it might help reconcile some of the difference.
The Poz goes FJM on Harold Reynolds' a$$ - gather around the kids (Jay) —
I would have voted as well, but as Dick Williams would say: "I should never have to give you a sign. The situation dictates what happens." So I think I'll just pass on this one. Boy we could all use an article like that on a Friday.
Linear Weights... by batted ball speed (Jay) —
You might be talking about this chart Harry which was referenced in posts 29 and 33: http://www.tangotiger.net/customlwts.html
Linear Weights... by batted ball speed (Jay) —
I'd just like to thank Harry and everyone else for helping me figure all this out. With the new information I am reading, I'm fairly certain Harry has already covered some of the things I'm trying to get at with my charts and he referred to that work in post 35: http://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2009/6/9/903793/optimal-launch-speed-and-angle-for Looking at the moving charts at the bottom of the comments section is particularly mesmerizing, so great work as always Harry. So just to clarify: If i'm trying to do LW's for pitch type analysis, hitter or pitcher perspective, use the LW's by count. If i'm trying to do LW's with regards to base state and outs, use: http://www.tangotiger.net/lwtsrobo.html And finally for batted ball LW's, regardless of base state, count and outs, use: 1B = .48, 2B = .78, 3B = 1.06, HR = 1.40, Batter reached Error = .51, batted out = (-.288). I think that should be correct. Slowly backing away now......
Linear Weights... by batted ball speed (Jay) —
re 21, I don't understand why you would do that either.
Linear Weights... by batted ball speed (Jay) —
I'll take all the feedback I can get guys. It's the only way I'll figure all this stuff out. Most of my knowledge of this stuff has come through comments in these blog threads, so I find them invaluable. Having limited experience to rely upon with this analysis, it's a learn as you go process. For me at least.
Linear Weights... by batted ball speed (Jay) —
JBrew: You are correct, the chart was flipped so throw out the above analysis. I'll post the updated one: Peter: I do have the count information. I was just using linear weights from an early 2008 article, Harry was just updating the values for me. Trying the -45-0-45 approach:
While we are here, this is the average RV by launch angle:
11.5 degrees is the top average launch angle, by run value.
Linear Weights... by batted ball speed (Jay) —
Here are the values for a left handed batter with a runner on first vs no one on. As expected, the run value drops down the first base line with the fielder holding the runner. The gap between first and second open up while the value drops up the middle, probably because teams playing for the double play/steal attempt.
Linear Weights... by batted ball speed (Jay) —
Using Harry's updated run values, here are the average run values by spray location according to hit f/x for April. I have taken out the bunts. 45 degrees is down the left field line and 135 degrees is down the right field line. The highest average run value is RHB that go opposite field.
The four main dips in value for LHB is where the infielders play, if I had to guess. I know there has been a lot of discussion in this blog recently about fielding position, so i'm going to stay away from that.
Linear Weights... by batted ball speed (Jay) —
I can't get the formatting right in the comments section, but if you want to see the results in an easier to read format, just go here Sorry guys. Feel free to post the chart in here if you can get it to work. If there is interest, I can give the result by spray and launch as well. Thanks
Sabermetric greats unrecognized by the mainstream (Jay) —
Also, Ken Singleton. Career 132 OPS+. .282/.388/.436 in 15 seasons. 3-time All-Star. 1263 BB & 1246 K in his career. .333/.391/.421 in 4 post-season series.
Sabermetric greats unrecognized by the mainstream (Jay) —
Keith Hernandez. MVP, 2-time Silver Slugger, 5-time All-Star (not completely underrated with those credentials but significantly overlooked on the H.o.F. balloting). .296/.384/.436 over 17 seasons. 2-time WS Champion, .265/.370/.359 (not great) in 5 post-season series (30 games). Generally regarded as one of the best defensive 1B ever and certainly of his generation.
And more on positional adjustments (Jay) —
Okay, so I now get DPA and how that matches with a player's offense and defensive runs above/below average to determine his dollar value. However, I am unsure of something on the offensive side. Do we compare all players (whether they are OF, IF, C, etc.) to replacement level of 20 runs, -2 wins or is it better to break it into 4 position groups: 1) OF replacement level is used for all OF, C replacement level is used for all catchers, 3) 1B replacement level is used for all 1B, 4) SS/3B/2B replacement level is used for all SS/3B/2B. This is the only part I'm confused about. Thanks.
And more on positional adjustments (Jay) —
Whoops...and I see my question about DPA and selective sampling, etc. was brought up in #33.
This will only hurt a little... (Jay) —
I worked for the Pawtucket Red Sox for 4 years and I can tell you for a fact that they let fans come in before announcing a rainout. I can remember multiple occasions where we knew the game would be postponed about an hour before game time but they welcomed in the fans in and made them sit in the rain until game time, at which point they announced the rainout. It is all done for a simple reason: Concessions. If you are sitting at the park, waiting for the rain to end, you are going to eat and drink. The tickets are refundable, but as long as they let the fans in, they can cash in concession wise as well. It is a win-win situation for the team.