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Monday, May 24, 2010
Matt Wieters current talent level?
After 551 PA, the catcher who just turned 24, has a career .322 wOBA (95 RC+, where 100 is a league average hitter).
If you know nothing else about a player, you would regress that performance about 25% or 30% toward the league mean. We do know he’s a catcher, which means that you would regress that performance more (35%? 40%?) toward that of the average catcher (which is quite a bit lower… say .300) and the league average. We do know that he was highly prized, so we regress more (45%? 50%?) toward the combination of the average catcher (.300) and the average highly prized hitter (say .370) and the league average (.330). We know even more, such that, subjective evaluation aside, his 2008 performance in the minors was beyond outstanding. Now we regress more, say 60%? 70%? toward the combination of everything I said and say a .420 level.
We can learn so much about Matt Wieters that we’ll be able to regress his performance nearly 100% toward the weighted characteristics of everything we need to know about him.
Until we do that, his forecast, along with everyone else, comes with huge uncertainty levels. When Stephen Strasburgh comes up, and when you see a forecast that does not come with an uncertainty level, you can ignore that forecast. If it does come with an uncertainty level, make sure that the upper boundary of that forecast does not already make him the best pitcher in the league (even if you really really really think he might be). If it does do that, ignore that forecast too.
While a superfast computer program that is infallible in its processing of data can be perfect, it’s still coded by a human, and limited to whatever parameters a human chooses. Don’t be a slave to humans. Be a slave to rational logic.
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