from Amazon
Wednesday, December 15, 2010
Matt and batted balls, part 1 (Tango’s reading issues)
There’s tons of information here. I’ll just point out this:
There are two more important reasons why Skill-Interactive Earned Run Average’s (SIERA) is so successful at predicting the following year’s ERA. First, most other Defense-Independent Pitching Statistics, like FIP and xFIP, assume that pitchers have no control over their Batting Average on Ball in Play (BABIP),
From what I remember, the success of SIERA is not appreciably different from FIP. In any case, FIP does NOT assume no control. FIP is agnostic on the position of BIP because it is only concerned with the subset of pitching that does not include batted ball in park. This is no different than OBP treating a walk and a HR as “1”. Matt is not alone in repeating this falsehood. I don’t know why it keeps being said. FIP simply recasts HR, BB, SO, HBP from 4 numbers in to 1. That’s the ONLY thing it does. It is not trying to say anything about the rest of the batted balls, or the sequencing of all events.
If you want to talk about the baseball aspect of Matt’s article, go to this thread:
http://www.insidethebook.com/ee/index.php/site/comments/matt_and_batted_balls_part_2_a_thread_about_baseball/
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