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Friday, August 21, 2009
Mark Reynolds, Saberist
Mark Reynolds said:
“I don’t understand why the strikeout is such a bad stat,” Reynolds says. “I know when you have a man on third and less than two outs and you punch out, it’s not good. But if there’s a man on first and one out and you hit a weak ground ball to second base and it’s a double play, what good does that do? If I strike out, at least the guy on deck still has a chance.”
He’s implicitly talking about the run value by the 24 base/out states. With a runner on 3B and less than 2 outs, the K is about 0.30 runs more costly than an out. It’s a killer, like a DP. With a runner on 1B and less than 2 outs, the K is about 0.03 runs less costly than a regular out (not such a big gain, but at least it’s actually a productive-type of an out.... well, at least a non-destructive type of an out).
I’ll make Reynolds a deal: let’s only count strikeouts with a runner on 3B and less than 2 outs, or with a runner on 2B (with 1B open) and 0 outs, and show it alongside the number of DP. His Ks will be worth about roughly half that of his DPs. Reynolds has 8 strikeout with a runner on 3B and less than 2 outs. He probably has around another 10 with a runner on 2B and 0 outs. So, that’s about 18 destructive strikeouts (I guess we can call them DK) to go with his 7 DP. His 150 other strikeouts are basically the same as all his other outs.
That’s why we say it’s no big deal. Yes, those 18 K cost his team say 3 or 4 runs (over and above a regular out). But his other 150 are regular outs, more or less. So, overall, the average K costs an extra .02 runs (that is, .02 times 168 equals 3.4 runs).
Reynolds is right. Leave him alone.
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