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Thursday, August 26, 2010
Mariners offense
Syzm:
So, by how much have the team’s bats underperformed expectations? And how does this compare historically?
To answer this question, I used the historical Marcel projection database that sabermetrician Jeff Sackmann recently created. Marcel is a simple projection system originally created by Tom Tango based on a player’s most recent three seasons, age and regression to the mean. Using this database, I went through every team’s offense from the past 40 years to see how the actual offenses compared to their expectations, taking into consideration league offenses, mix of players and actual playing time received. The “performance ratio” is simply the ratio between runs expected before the season and the actual runs scored.
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As it turns out, the 2010 Mariners offense is one of the biggest underperformers of the divisional era, behind only three teams and the biggest underperformer in the past 15 years. It isn’t all bad, however—the rest of the top-10 disappointments had fairly quick reversals of fortune, averaging a 0.6 run/game improvement and a nine-win improvement a season later.
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