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Wednesday, December 27, 2006
Marcel plus Chone plus position equals Projected SLWTS
Danny Wind does all the work to bring it together.
While he did say he leaves the door open for the “DH penalty”, one look at the top two players shows how silly it is to even leave it open so wide. Pujols gets docked 13 runs for his position (1B), and gets 1 run for being slightly above average as a fielder (according to ZR anyway). Hafner gets docked only 4 runs for his position (DH), and the “door open” for his fielding talent for his “position”.
What this first shows is that managers use the DH as a glorified PH role, rather than shoving the right player there. The average DH is probably a better fielder than the average 1B (if you go based on who is actually playing there), but, it’s crazy to consider David Ortiz in that camp. There are really two types of DH: the fill-in, and the career-guy. The career-guy, the Ortizes, are guys who the manager avoids at all costs in putting in the field. I’d lump these guys with all 1B. The career-guy DH would probably still keep the offensive value of the 1B at +13 runs (meaning -13 positional adjustment runs). As well, I’d give every DH a blanket -10 or -15 fielding runs, relative to the average 1B. So, Hafner gets docked 25 runs, and not 4.
For the fill-in guys, I’d create a separate category for them. I know it’s work to go through everyone who was a DH (especially if you are going to do this historically), but, what do we want to do: represent reality, or create a system that is foolish, but is not “subjective”.
Our job is to model reality. And that means, making intelligent subjective calls.
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