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Tuesday, June 07, 2011
Lottery bank account
You have to answer this question: I win a million dollars in a lottery. My __ x __ bank account has a million dollars. My __ y __ bank account has zero dollars.
Are you talking about x, or about y? What is it you want? And don’t say both!
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Let me say something to those who are 100% in the “value” camp. I’ll present an extreme example (but one which nonetheless has happened, however rarely).
A player virtually never comes to bat, spending all his time as a pinch runner. He scores a ton of runs (more runs than times on base).
In terms of “value”, does he get ALL the credit for the run scored, or does some of the credit for the run scored go to the guy who reached base? In a pure and total value (i.e., I won the lottery) argument, I’d think it’s bad luck to the guy who reached base, and the guy who scored the run is the guy who scored the run. It’s his indivisible run.
Indeed, in terms of pure value, the ONLY events that can possibly count are those where a run actually scored. That means the guy who scored, the guy who drove him in, and the guy who moved him over (batter assists).
A leadoff triple where no run scores in the inning is, in effect, of no value whatsoever.
It of course portends real skill. But, it has no value. You can’t cash in that lottery ticket. It’s like you have half a dollar bill, and your friend with the other half of the dollar bill is refusing to tape it with you into one dollar bill.
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Therefore, it would seem to me, that if you truly believe in “value”, you’ve got to be way on board the runs, rbi, and batter assist train.
But, you probably don’t like that idea, so then you start to couch things into theoretical terms, like run expectancy and linear weights, and leadoff triples where no run scores starts to accrue “value”. When, indeed, no value exists.
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So, are you really about skill or about value?
Or, you don’t like the answer that results from those two questions that you end up making up your own question to fit the answer you are looking for?
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