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Thursday, June 23, 2011
Lookout Landing readers understand regression toward the mean!
Asked which of Felix, Pineda (and Fister) will pitch better in 2012, and they overwhelmingly chose Felix (after 115 votes).
Without applying regression toward the mean, and really just going with their guts, instincts, or whatever you want to call it, the readers realized that even if Pineda is showing better numbers than Felix (and better tools in some respects), the fact that Felix has been doing it for so long, and Pineda is just showing his stuff, then your certainty level is greater with Felix.
It’s similar to the Strasburg question I had last year. In a poll with the other young stars (Felix, Verlander, Josh Johnson, Greinke, Ubaldo, Kershaw… I forget the other guy right now… Lincecum, how could I forget him?), Strasburg didn’t finish ahead of all of them. That even if you grant him the superior physical tools, his lack of opportunities in MLB gave the readers enough of an uncertainty level.
Heck, if I remember right, Verlander finished low (6th or 7th) in the group, and Ubaldo finished 1st. So, yeah, things can change mighty quickly after one year. Maybe I should re-run that poll tomorrow.
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