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Thursday, February 04, 2010
Linear Weights by Strike Zone location
Fantastic job by Jeremy. How is it possible that a pitch down the middle can generate negative runs for any hitter:
Name Runs Swings
Prince Fielder 30.7 249
Mark Teixeira 29.9 294
Ryan Braun 29.6 281
Adam Dunn 25.3 294
Andre Ethier 25.2 323
Augie Ojeda -10.9 128
Nick Punto -11.3 191
Luis Rodriguez -11.8 129
Ty Wigginton -12.0 219
Dioner Navarro -13.1 174
So, Nick Punto, at 191 swings, is -11.3 runs, or -6 runs per 100 swings. I get the feeling that on swings that are NOT down-the-middle that Punto is better. Anyway, just great stuff overall.
It’s important to note that while a pitcher will NEVER intend to throw a pitch down the middle (except maybe at 3-0 to weak hitters), they still end up doing it often enough that the big boppers get to swing at such a pitch three HUNDRED times (basically, in half a hitter’s plate appearances, he will get to swing at a pitch down the middle, hence the conventional wisdom to wait a pitch you can drive).
And this is what MGL is talking about in terms of separating intent of pitcher from result of pitcher.
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