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Saturday, December 11, 2010
Linear Weights 1993-2010
To read the first line:
- BEFORE a home run is hit, the average base/out state has a run expectancy of .526 runs
- DURING a home run, 1.60 runs are scored
- AFTER a home run, the run expectancy is .328 runs
Linear Weights is simply DURING+AFTER-BEFORE.... and that’s 1.398 runs. Basically, the popular and static 1.40 runs that we’ve come to associate with the home run. The “error” includes fielder’s choice (where all runners are safe), which is why the starting state has such a high run expectancy (when you have runners on base, your starting state is high… this is apparent with the IBB). You’ll note that the HR is in a slightly lower run expectancy environment, meaning disproportionate number of HR hit with bases empty or with 2 outs. Same applies with the strikeout, which is why the average strikeout isn’t as costly as we’d think, and why, from 1993-2010, the run value of a strikeout matches that of the regular out.
For the “Runs”, think of it as the number of RBIs for each of those events (if they awarded an RBI for every event).
LWTS RE_START RE_END Runs N EVENT_CD SHORTNAME_TX LONGNAME_TX
1.398 0.526 0.328 1.60 80271 23 HR Homerun
1.059 0.540 0.947 0.65 14868 22 3B Triple
0.773 0.538 0.874 0.44 138138 21 2B Double
0.527 0.629 0.924 0.23 32213 18 ROE Error
0.471 0.543 0.786 0.23 459946 20 1B Single
0.384 0.616 0.967 0.03 303 17 XI Interference
0.347 0.571 0.887 0.03 25682 16 HBP Hit By Pitch
0.322 0.514 0.814 0.02 235199 14 NIBB Nonintentional Walk
0.176 0.743 0.919 0.00 17624 15 IBB Intentional Walk
-0.294 0.538 0.214 0.03 1429486 2 Out Generic Out
-0.296 0.510 0.213 0.00 480203 3 K Strikeout
0.267 0.719 0.835 0.15 4632 10 PB Passed Ball
0.265 0.703 0.805 0.16 21801 9 WP Wild Pitch
0.254 0.673 0.777 0.15 2889 11 BK Balk
0.182 0.593 0.757 0.02 42039 4 SB Stolen Base
0.124 0.468 0.591 0.00 441 5 DI Defensive Indifference
-0.270 0.657 0.355 0.03 8809 8 PK Pickoff
-0.463 0.613 0.146 0.00 14857 6 CS Caught Stealing
-0.473 0.724 0.226 0.03 916 12 OA Other Advance
Source data: courtesy of Retrosheet, the sabremetric slice bread
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