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Tuesday, May 04, 2010
Leverage Index to end of game
There’s something that’s been bothering me about Leverage Index (LI).
Let’s take the top of the 8th, bases loaded, 2 outs situation, home (pitching) team up by 1. The LI is 6.8. The LI says that the change in win expectancy is about 7 times as impactful as a random situation. And, it’s easy enough to see. But, by the time the top of the 9th comes up, the LI can be anything from 2.9 (if no runs score) to close to 0 (if there was lots of runs that had scored in the 8th).
What would be more interesting therefore is to see what the average LI would be from that point in the 8th inning to the end of the game (or at least to the end of the next inning, which is about when a reliever is expected to pitch… that is, up to 2 innings, with one sit-down half inning).
I kinda tackled this issue in The Book already, where I compare the win% of a star pitcher and an average pitcher from some point in the game to the end of the game. And the results were pretty much similar to the standard way I do LI. But, I’m thinking more of these oddball high-leverage cases (basically men on base, two outs). I don’t think I’d get similar results.
Anyway, if the top of the 8th situation had a 6.8 LI, it’s possible that from that point onwards, to the end of the top of the 9th, the average LI will be say 4.0. It’s still a super high LI of course. It’s just not the big LI that the 6.8 suggests (when you are thinking of it in terms of the manager to bring in his reliever). The 6.8 is still true in terms of PA-by-PA.
Just something I’ve been thinking about, and I’ll generate the LI-to-end-of-next-inning one day.
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