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Tuesday, March 22, 2011
“Let’s divide two!”
A few years ago, Patriot wrote an article about the proliferation of breathless inventions of the same thing, all centered around the bases per out or bases per PA idea (which you can extend to bases per hit, or really just about dividing any two related numbers). Colin followed that up with essentially a part 2. Indeed, on the top of this page is a “required reading” that links to those two articles. No one should attempt any kind of mathematics until they read those two articles.
I just saw yet another article on dividing two things, and how the presentation was somehow novel. Basically uttering Ernie Banks’ non-saber credo: “let’s divide two!”
This post is just a reminder that there is required reading. You can start with the link at the top of any page here. And then pick up Panas‘ Beyond Batting Average. And maybe move up to Eric’s book. Let those readings inspire you to do build on what’s been built, or create something new.
***
In terms of the “ultimate” bases per PA is wOBA:
= 0.7 * (BB+HB)
+ 0.9 * (1B + Errors)
+ 1.3 * (2B+3B)
+ 2.0 * HR
+ 0.25 * SB
- 0.50 * CS
all divided by PA
That’s the basic model. You can tweak things a bit, and separate out the 2B and 3B if you want. And adjust by run environment. But, it basically comes down to that. If you see something different, it’s just a way of trying to get to that.
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