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Thursday, December 16, 2010
Lemonade
JC was kind enough to post this handy-dandy chart:
That’s the frequency of ERA, for pitchers allowed to face at least 100 MLB hitters in 2009. Now, what do you think a similar chart would look like for AA+AAA (twice as many pitchers). Probably something like this:
Now, what if all those guys were to pitch in MLB (but only against current MLB hitters). How would they do? Probably something like this:
Now, what would happen if you simply add the first chart (JC’s chart) to the third chart (my chart of minor league pitchers’ presumed performance against MLB hitters)? You get something like this:
You see how the pyramid is starting to form? If you add single A, rookie pitchers, college pitchers and so on, the pyramid keeps building, and you get the tail of a normal distribution.
This is how talent should be visualized:
http://www.tangotiger.net/talent.html
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