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Thursday, May 29, 2008
Just put me on TV for one game (that’s all I would last anyway)…
Bob Brenley, former player, former catcher (supposedly one of the “smartest” players on the field), former manager, long time analyst and announcer:
Bottom of the seventh in Cub game, 1 out with runners on 1st and 3rd, Lee hits a dribbler between the pitcher and the third baseman. No reason to think it is going to be a base hit, but obviously it is not going to be a DP. Soriano holds at 3rd and the pitcher throws to first as he is supposed to, of course (that is his only play).
Brenley calmly says, “Soriano held at third as he is supposed to. The only time he is supposed to run is on an obvious double play ball. You don’t want to get thrown out at home in that situation.”
Huh? Is that what he taught his players when he was manager? Is that what his coaches and managers taught him when he played? And I have never played the game, right?
In case anyone does not know what I am talking about, you go on any ground ball because there is always a chance that you will make it at home, since it is a tag play, and if you get thrown out, there are runners on 1st and 2nd and 2 out, which is not a whole lot different than 2nd and 3rd with 2 out (.567 RE to .433). Not to mention that the Cubs were down by 1 run, which makes it even more imperative to try and score the run before 2 outs.
Anyway, the break even point, in RE, is 9%. IOW, if you go on the ground ball and they throw home, you only need to be safe 9% of the time and the RE is exactly the same as if you stay at third and the runner gets thrown out at first. And of course, some of the time on a dribbler like that, they will not throw home and will go to first anyway. So when they do throw home, the BE point is going to be even less than that. Throw in the fact that you are down by a run in the 7th inning, and the BE point is even less than that!
And you think managers know what they are doing on complex issues? They can’t even get a basic play right that a Little League coach would or at least should know!
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