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Thursday, March 11, 2010
“Just Enough” Homeruns
Greg. He has a chart that shows that guys with at least 30 HR and at least 40% “just enough” HR (those that barely cleared the fence), they had a drop of 23% in their total home runs.
There are 2 reasons for this that is unrelated to the Just Enough:
1. fewer at bats… Greg shows us the raw HR counts, rather than showing HR per contacted PA or HR per swing
2. regression… anyone with at least 30 HR is bound to hit less HR
Greg, in order to improve your study, you need a control group: give us all the 30-HR guys with less than 25% “Just enough” and all teh 30-HR guys with 25-40% just enoughs. And show the group totals on a per PA or per swing basis.
Then show us the before/after. I will guess that after all that, the true drop in HR rate for the “just enoughs” will be somewhere close to 5%.
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