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Tuesday, January 25, 2011
Juan Pierre: I and we were wrong
I ran a poll before the 2008 season, asking you guys how much MLB life left in Juan Pierre. The median came back as 1500 PA. He reached that level late in the 2010 season, on his way to playing 160 games. It’s clear that he’ll be playing at least two more seasons, and will likely get at least 1000 more PA.
Things were looking good for us in that 2008 season, as he had 0 WAR in Fangraphs and 0.5 WAR in B-R.com. But, in 2009-2010, things improved greatly, with 4.0 for Fangraphs and 3.7 for B-R.com. As you can see, over the three years, both sites agree, he’s been 4.0 to 4.2 WAR.
We are essentially back to where we were three years ago. Our expectation for him is probably 1500 PA for him for the rest of his career.
There’s a group of players, the Willie Ballgames, the Craig Counsells, that seem to defy our standard aging curves. I don’t know if it’s confirmation bias, or that these players have some inner drive that’s just a bit stronger than others, and lets them age more gracefully. Juan Pierre may be part of this group.
Or, it could be these players have performed below their true talent level, and have been unlucky for many years, but baseball people had faith in these players, knowing that they are better than we’ve seen.
Or, who knows what. Could be some unexplained concept.
Anyway, Juan Pierre: you win.
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