THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

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Wednesday, February 11, 2009

Joe Sheehan v The Monkey

By Tangotiger, 09:03 PM

I took Joe Sheehan to task last year when he made his “breakout” forecasts:

Now, how am I supposed to evaluate Joe here? The Marcels seem like a good fit. The 9 hitters that Joe mentions (the 8 plus Francoeur) are expected by Marcel to perform at these levels: 4633 PA, 1116 H, 388 XBH, 556 RBI, 612 R, 86 SB, 20 CS, 421 BB, and 765 K.

How did Joe’s breakout candidates do? Well, reader Dave said those 9 guys actually performed as:

4415 PA, 1065 H, 372 XBH, 506 RBI, 587 R, 78 SB, 19 CS, 359 BB, 662 K. 0.270 AVG, 0.336 OBP, 0.431 SLG

Please, for the love of all that is holy about baseball, let no one be allowed to list any breakout candidates in 2009. Please. Not unless they promise to do a self-examination every year.

(9) Comments • 2009/02/12 • Sabermetrics • Forecasting

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THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

Wednesday, February 11, 2009

Joe Sheehan v The Monkey

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