THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

Friday, January 04, 2008

Jim Rice?  How about Vladimir Guerrero and Andruw Jones?

Is Vlad a Hall of Famer if he retired today?

What if he played for two more seasons?  And he had a .324 OBP with a .318 SLG?  Basically, if he hit like the worst hitter in the league for two years, would that bump up his case?

Well, if he did that, if he played really crappy for two years, he’d have the same hitting line, exactly the same, as Duke Snider. 

Duke’s a CF, right?  Ok, how about this: he plays for 2 1/2 years, hits .200 OBP and a .237 SLG.  Is he in after he does that?  That’s the difference between Vlad and Orlando Cepeda.  Ok, Cepeda played in the 60s.

How about if he played for three more seasons, and he hit .233 OBP and .283 SLG?  That’s the difference between Jim Rice and Vlad.  So, Vlad would have to hit worse than the worst player ever practically to get Jim Rice’s career.  And Rice is on the cusp of the HOF.

There’s no question that Vlad would be in the HOF, if he retired today.

Andruw Jones, who has virtually the same number of Runs scored, RBI, 2B, 3B, HR, SB, HBP, and a bit more walks as Vlad, but he has 600 more batting outs… what about him?

Well, if Andruw turns 30 more hits into outs every year and he does that for 10 years, that gives him 300 more fielding outs than Vlad.  He’s also a CF.

Andruw Jones, if he did retire today, would also be in the Hall of Fame.  You’d be hard-pressed to argue that Kirby Puckett had a better career than Andruw, as of today.  And Andruw is less than 1 full season in reaching Kirby’s playing time.

Now, you want a really tough argument?  Try Pujols.  Forget the 10-year rule (Pujols has the same number of PA as David Ortiz, yet Ortiz would qualify for the HOF.) Do you put Pujols in today?