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Tuesday, April 26, 2011
Jered Weaver: from sabre-darling to sabre-nightmare
I’ve had a few Jered Weaver threads in the past several months, arguing that he’s been largely ignored by the mainstream because the poor W/L, with the exemption being controlled by Felix, and there was only one exemption to be had, so the MSM gave it to Felix alone. Weaver and Felix were extremely close in 2010 by sabre-standards.
Now in 2011, Weaver is once again matching his 2010 K and BB numbers. But, he’s got three things that have more luck-impact to them, and he’s on the right side of each one.
1. He’s a flyball pitcher who, while historically he’s already better than league average in allowing HR, is right now much better than his HR standard.
2. His batting average on balls in play, while historically he’s already better than league average, is right now extremely low.
3. His performance with men on base, while historically better than league average, is right now far better than league average.
The result is that he’s been on the mound for only 6 runs while facing 171 batters, and his team has won all six starts. The expectation however is that he’s going to perform for the rest of the season as close to his historical norms.
From a sabre-viewpoint, there’s really not much different in Weaver 2010 and Weaver 2011, just as there was little difference between Felix 2009 and Felix 2010. The results are fun, and they are real (in that they happened), but they are not necessarily linked to his talent level. They are not persistent at this level.
Weaver, Felix, Verlander, Josh Johnson, and Lincecum are all great young pitchers. And are all in the same ballpark of talent. If one stands head and shoulders above the others, it’s a sabre-nightmare to explain. If they were all free agents, they’d all sign for about the same terms. What we love about them are their K and BB numbers, because after that, all the other numbers follow from there.
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