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THE BOOK--Playing The Percentages In Baseball

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Friday, August 12, 2011

Jayson Stark Tracer

By Tangotiger, 05:17 PM

He says:

“This guy could always hit a fastball,” one scout said. “But he’d chase so many other pitches, he didn’t get in enough hitters’ counts to get those fastballs. Now he doesn’t chase those pitches. I’ve never seen anything like it. I’ve never seen a player make that change and do it that dramatically.”

So, Bautista doesn’t chase breaking pitches, right?  In 2008-2009 (for whatever games are in the log), he swung at 27% curve balls, 37% sliders, and 42% changeups.  In 2010, he swung at 26% curve balls, 34% sliders, and 38% changeups.  Looks pretty similar to me.

In 2008-2009, he swung and missed on 7% curveballs, 11% sliders, and 13% changeups.  In 2010?  7%, 10%, and 10%. 

I don’t see much here.  Perhaps Stark can support his opinion (which he couched by quoting one scout out of 1000 possible scouts) with actual data.  I’m sure one of the PITCHf/x jocks will help him out.

(8) Comments • 2011/08/13 • SabermetricsBall_Tracking
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August 12, 2011
Jayson Stark Tracer